NQ / ES Session Probability Indicator

futures session statistics engine built for TradingView. Powered by 2,800+ days of historical NQ and ES data, it classifies each day into one of 72 context combinations — from Asia range to London sweep patterns to NY session breakout probabilities — and delivers hit rates, penetration targets, and directional bias directly on your chart.

AxisCategoriesDescription
Asia RangeBelow Avg / Above AvgToday’s Asia session range vs adaptive 14-session rolling average. Automatically adjusts to current volatility regime. Fallback: historical median (NQ: 39.25 pts, ES: 10.0 pts).
LDN Open vs AsiaBelow / Near Mid / AboveWhere London opened relative to the Asia range. ±15% threshold around midpoint defines the “Near” zone.
London SweepNone / High / Low / BothWhich Asia levels London swept before NY open. Key input for London sweep strategy analysis — determines NY session breakout probability.
NY Open vs LDNBelow / Near Mid / AboveWhere NY opened relative to London range. ±15% threshold. Completes the full session context picture.

Setup & Context — Current 4-axis classification, sample size, confidence grade (A+ to C) with score out of 100

Prediction — Hit High/Low First %, Sweep Both %, Median Time to first sweep, Fail H→L / L→H %

Hit Rates — Probability of touching each level (London High, London Low, Asia High, Asia Low) during NY window

Penetration Targets — Expected move after level break: Median and P75 depth, both up and down

Range Info — Today’s Asia and London range in points with percentile ranking vs full dataset

Live Status — Real-time tracking: first sweep direction, current penetration depth, sweep both status

Core

  • Symbol: NQ / ES
  • NY Window: AM / PM / FULL
  • Theme: Dark / Light

Panel Sections (toggle on/off)

  • Setup & Context
  • Prediction
  • Hit Rates
  • Risk / Penetration
  • Range Info
  • Live Status

Display (toggle on/off)

  • Draw Levels on Chart
  • Session Boxes
  • Penetration Target Lines
  • Bias Arrow
  • Confidence Score
  • Label Size: tiny / small / normal

Colors (customizable)

  • Asia High / Asia Low
  • London High / London Low / London Mid
  • Asia / London / NY Session Box

Data source

All futures session statistics are pre-computed from historical NQ and ES data (2015–2025). Data is embedded directly in the indicator — no external API calls, no delays. This is the same dataset behind TradingStats.net research.

Adaptive classification

The Asia Range classification uses a rolling 14-session average rather than a fixed historical median. This adapts to current market volatility, making the “Below/Above Average” determination relevant to recent conditions — critical for accurate London sweep strategy analysis.

Thresholds

London Open vs Asia and NY Open vs London use a ±15% threshold around the session midpoint. Openings within this zone are classified as “Near Mid”; above or below are “Above” or “Below”. These thresholds were optimized across the full dataset.

Recommended setup

5-minute chart on NQ1!/ES1! or continuous futures contracts. All session times are in Eastern Time (ET). Works as a TradingView overlay indicator — add to any existing chart layout.

⚠ Disclaimer — This session trading indicator provides statistical probabilities based on historical futures data. It does not generate buy/sell signals and should not be used as the sole basis for trading decisions. Past performance does not guarantee future results. NQ statistics should not be applied to ES and vice versa. Always use proper risk management.

Also available: Gap Fill Probability & Statistics [ES/NQ]