Pre-Market 1H Retracement — Hourly Candle Hit Rate Indicator for TradingView

3,100+ trading days of futures data, 4 instruments, 6 pre-market hourly candles — statistical retracement probabilities directly on your TradingView chart.

This indicator draws Mid and Open levels from each pre-market hourly candle (2:00–7:00 AM ET) and shows the historical probability that price will revisit each level during the New York session (8:00–16:00 ET). Every hit rate comes from a 12+ year backtest across NQ, ES, YM, and RTY — not from theoretical models.

No signals. No repainting. Just measured retracement probabilities, conditional decay, and maximum adverse excursion data.

What is hourly retracement?

Before the New York session opens at 8:00 AM ET, futures markets trade through the overnight, Asian, and London sessions. Each hour leaves behind two key reference points: the Mid (high + low) / 2 and the Open price of that hourly candle.

These levels act as retracement magnets during the NY session. The 7:00 AM candle — the last hour before the session open — has the strongest pull: its Mid level is revisited approximately 94% of the time, and its Open approximately 89%.

The further back the candle (2:00 AM, 3:00 AM), the lower the hit rate — but many still exceed 80%, which makes them statistically relevant reference points.

How the indicator works

The indicator operates in four steps: collect pre-market candles, draw levels with hit rates, track touches in real time, and display analytics in the dashboard.

Step 1: Pre-market candle collection

The indicator tracks six hourly candles from 2:00 AM to 7:00 AM ET (hours 02, 03, 04, 05, 06, 07). For each hour, it records:

• Open — the first price of the hourly candle
• High / Low — the candle’s range extremes
• Mid — (High + Low) / 2

Candle data is built from 1-minute bars using the chart’s native resolution, so it works on any timeframe from 1-minute to daily.

Step 2: Level drawing with hit rates

Each enabled level appears as a horizontal line extending from the candle’s hour through the NY session. Labels show the hour, level type, and hit rate:

• Mid levels — solid color, label format: 7am Mid 94%
• Open levels — slightly dimmer, label format: 7am Open 89%

Levels below the minimum hit rate threshold (configurable, default 75%) are hidden. A color gradient makes closer hours (7am) brighter and distant hours (2am) dimmer.

Step 3: Real-time hit detection

During the NY session (8:00–16:00 ET), the indicator checks every bar. When a candle’s high/low range crosses a level, that level is marked as hit:

• The line fades to low opacity
• The label appends a checkmark: 7am Mid 94% ✓
• Optionally, hit levels can be hidden entirely

Step 4: Dashboard analytics

A multi-row dashboard displays hit rates, conditional decay, MAE (max adverse excursion), distance from current price, ALN pattern boost, priority score, confluence markers, and session summary statistics.

Conditional decay

A level’s probability isn’t static throughout the day. If a level hasn’t been touched by a certain time, its remaining probability decreases. The indicator uses five intraday checkpoints:

Checkpoint (ET)	Meaning
09:00	1 hour into the session
10:00	2 hours in — initial balance complete
11:00	Midday
12:00	Lunch / low volume
14:00	Afternoon — last opportunity window

For example, if the 7am Mid has a baseline hit rate of 94% and it hasn’t been touched by 11:00 AM, the conditional probability drops to the measured rate: P(hit by 16:00 | not hit by 11:00). This data comes from the same 3,100+ day backtest.

The dashboard dynamically switches to the current checkpoint’s decay rate as the session progresses. This gives you a realistic, time-adjusted probability rather than a stale opening number.

MAE zones

MAE (Maximum Adverse Excursion) measures how far price typically moves beyond a level before reversing. The indicator displays two zones around each level:

• Inner zone (darker) — ± MAE median in points. Price stays within this range in 50% of cases.
• Outer zone (lighter) — ± MAE 75th percentile. Price stays within this range in 75% of cases.

MAE values are stored as percentages of ATR (Average True Range, 14-period daily) and converted to points using the current day’s ATR. This means the zones automatically scale with volatility — wider on high-volatility days, narrower on quiet days

ALN pattern boost

The indicator detects the Asian-London-New York (ALN) candle pattern and shows conditional hit rates when a pattern is present:

Pattern	Description	Effect on Hit Rates
P1 — Engulfs	London candle engulfs Asia	Variable — depends on hour and instrument
P2 — Inside	London stays inside Asia’s range	Often +5–17pp above baseline
P3 — Partial Up	London breaks above Asia but not below	Directional filter (upside bias)
P4 — Partial Down	London breaks below Asia but not above	Directional filter (downside bias)

When an ALN pattern is detected, the dashboard shows the pattern-specific hit rate alongside the baseline. P2 (Inside) is the strongest conditional filter, adding +5–17 percentage points to most levels. Mid and Open levels have separate pattern data — 32 independent pattern arrays in total.

Priority score & confluence

Priority Score

Each unhit level receives a priority score from 0 to 100 that combines hit rate with distance from current price:

Score = (Hit Rate / 100) × (1 − min(distance / ATR, 1.0)) × 100

A high score means both high probability and nearby price. The dashboard sorts levels by priority score so you can see which levels are most likely to be hit next.

Confluence detection

When 3 or more unhit levels cluster within ±2% of ATR, each level in the cluster is marked with a ⚡ symbol. Confluence zones often act as stronger magnets than isolated levels. The threshold requires a minimum of 3 levels in the cluster to avoid false positives.

Dashboard sections

The dashboard adapts in real time, showing different data as the session progresses:

The data behind the probabilities

Every number in this indicator comes from a large-scale backtest — 12+ years of 1-minute futures data processed into level-specific hit rates, MAE distributions, conditional decay curves, and pattern-based probabilities.

Key findings from the backtest:

• 7am Mid — 94.1% hit rate across all instruments (the highest of any level)
• 7am Open — 88.9% (consistently the second-highest)
• Mid > Open — Mid levels outperform Open levels for every hour and every instrument
• P2 (Inside) boost — adds +5–17pp to baseline hit rates when London stays inside Asia
• Decay pattern — levels not hit by 11:00 AM lose roughly 15–30pp of remaining probability
• Cross-instrument stability — NQ, ES, YM, and RTY show consistent patterns within 0.1–0.6pp

For the complete analysis with per-instrument tables, ALN pattern breakdowns, decay curves, and MAE distributions, read the full research article.

Chart overlay features

Level lines

Mid and Open levels are drawn as horizontal lines from their candle hour extending through the NY session. A color gradient makes the 7am level bright and the 2am level dimmer — visual priority at a glance. Line style (Solid, Dashed, Dotted) and width (1–4 px) are configurable.

Hit level behavior

When a level is touched, its line fades and the label shows a checkmark. The “Fade Hit Levels” setting controls this. Optionally, hit levels can be hidden entirely to reduce chart clutter.

MAE zone overlays

Optional translucent zones around each level showing the median and 75th percentile MAE range. Inner zone is darker, outer zone is lighter. Zones scale automatically with daily ATR.

Supported instruments

Four US equity index futures and their micro contract equivalents:

Instrument	Full Contract	Micro Contract	Days Backtested
Nasdaq 100	NQ	MNQ	~3,115
S&P 500	ES	MES	~3,115
Dow Jones	YM	MYM	~3,115
Russell 2000	RTY	M2K	~3,115

All probabilities are instrument-specific. The chart symbol is detected automatically. For unsupported symbols, NQ fallback values are used.

Methodology & data

Transparent methodology — every statistic is reproducible.

• Data source — InsightSentry API continuous contract data
• Period — 12+ years (~3,115 trading days per instrument)
• Instruments — NQ, ES, YM, RTY (processed independently)
• Timeframe — 1-hour candles from 18:00 ET to 08:00 ET (pre-market)
• Session window — 08:00–16:00 ET (full ETH session)
• Hit definition — Bar high ≥ level or bar low ≤ level during session window
• MAE normalization — Stored as % of daily ATR(14), converted to points at runtime
• Decay checkpoints — 09:00, 10:00, 11:00, 12:00, 14:00 ET — conditional P(hit by 16:00 | not hit by checkpoint)
• ALN patterns — P1 (Engulfs), P2 (Inside), P3 (Partial Up), P4 (Partial Down) — 32 separate pattern arrays
• Minimum sample — n ≥ 20 for all decay and pattern rates
• Timezone — All session boundaries in Eastern Time (America/New_York)

All data is embedded directly in the indicator code — no external API calls, no server dependencies. The indicator works offline and loads instantly.

Usage notes

• Works on any chart timeframe — from 1-minute to daily. The indicator builds hourly candles from chart data internally.
• Levels appear after 8:00 AM ET when pre-market candle data is available
• Match the chart symbol to a supported instrument (NQ, ES, YM, RTY, or micro equivalents)
• Conditional decay only activates after each checkpoint passes — before 09:00 ET, baseline rates are shown
• MAE zones scale with current ATR — they will be wider on volatile days and narrower on quiet days
• ALN pattern detection requires London session data (roughly 03:00–08:00 ET) to be on chart
• For unsupported symbols, NQ data is used as fallback

Measured levels. Conditional probabilities. No assumptions.

Based on 3,100+ trading days of measured futures data across NQ, ES, YM, and RTY.

Full research behind this indicator

For the complete analysis of pre-market hourly candle retracement behavior in futures markets — per-instrument hit rate tables, ALN pattern breakdowns, decay curves, and MAE distributions — read the full article: Pre-Market Hourly Retracement: Which Levels Actually Get Hit? →